Gold Eyes Breakout as Market Uncertainty and Political Risks Fuel Bullish Momentum

Gold and silver continue to show strength as safe-haven demand grows amid political volatility, dovish rate expectations, and inflation concerns.

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Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis: Momentum Building for a Major Upside Move

Gold prices are trading near $3,350, finding solid support from a combination of weakening U.S. Dollar sentiment, falling Treasury yields, and rising geopolitical risks. Despite hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, demand for gold has remained firm—highlighting its status as a safe haven amid growing market unease.

The June ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.0, slightly above expectations, while JOLTS data showed 7.77 million job openings—another sign of a resilient labor market. Still, political tensions surrounding Fed independence and Trump’s proposed $3.3 trillion spending bill have fueled uncertainty, pushing real yields lower and lifting gold prices.

Traders are also closely watching the July 9 tariff deadline, which could add further pressure on the U.S. Dollar and intensify safe-haven inflows into gold.

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Gold Technical Levels to Watch (XAU/USD)

• Daily Chart Outlook:
  Gold is trading within an ascending triangle, rebounding strongly from its lower boundary. A bullish hammer pattern has formed on the daily chart, indicating strong buying interest. A confirmed breakout above $3,450 would likely trigger a sharp rally toward new highs.
• 4-Hour Chart View:
  Consolidation continues just below resistance at $3,430. The recent bounce from the $3,250 zone suggests buyers are defending key support. However, a break below $3,230 could invalidate bullish momentum.

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Silver (XAG/USD) Analysis: Holding Gains Above Breakout Zone

Silver prices have remained strong after breaking above $35.00, consolidating between $34.50 and $37.00. The formation of an Adam and Eve pattern on the daily chart signals continued bullish momentum, supported by silver’s dual appeal as both an industrial metal and a safe-haven asset.

Demand remains robust, while the price structure suggests further upside is possible if key resistance levels are breached.

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Silver Technical Levels to Watch (XAG/USD)

• Daily Chart Outlook:
  After breaking out from the $35.00 mark, silver has formed a clean bullish structure. A move above $37.00 would likely drive prices toward the psychological level of $40.00.
• 4-Hour Chart View:
  Consolidation continues above the $34.50 support zone. Momentum indicators are strengthening, and a bullish breakout looks imminent if resistance at $37.00 is cleared.

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U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis: Weakness Persists as Pressure Builds

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains under strong selling pressure, currently approaching the 96.00 support level. A breach below this critical level could accelerate downside momentum, especially with rising fiscal concerns and geopolitical uncertainty undermining investor confidence.

• Daily Chart Outlook:
  A potential head and shoulders pattern below the 105.20 level is signaling broader weakness. Continued pressure could open the path toward 94.50, and possibly 90.00, in the medium term.
• 4-Hour Chart View:
  The index is firmly stuck within a descending channel. Short-term rallies are likely to be sold, with strong resistance overhead and key support at 94.50.

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📌 Summary:

• Gold is gearing up for a breakout above $3,450, supported by strong fundamentals and technicals.
• Silver maintains bullish structure, with eyes on $37.00 as the next breakout trigger.
• U.S. Dollar Index remains weak, increasing the appeal of precious metals as uncertainty rises.

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