Gold Analysis: Bears Take Control After Triangle Breakdown

Gold (XAU/USD) is under pressure after decisively breaking below an ascending triangle pattern and the 50-day SMA, signaling a potential extension of the recent downtrend. The drop follows easing geopolitical tensions and improving global trade sentiment, particularly after the US-EU trade deal.

Prices have fallen over $100 from the recent $3,450 peak, currently hovering near the $3,300 level. As trade optimism trims safe-haven flows and the US Dollar regains strength, the short-term outlook for gold remains vulnerable. That said, if the Fed signals a dovish turn, a bullish reversal cannot be ruled out.

Technical Outlook – XAU/USD:

• Daily Support Zone: $3,250 (key lower range support)
• Resistance Levels: $3,350, followed by $3,430
• Pattern Watch: Ongoing consolidation between $3,250 and $3,430 suggests potential breakout volatility

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Silver Analysis: Pullback in Progress, But Trend Remains Bullish

Unlike gold, silver (XAG/USD) retains its bullish momentum despite a healthy pullback from recent highs. The daily chart shows a strong uptrend supported by historical bullish patterns like the inverted head & shoulders and the Adam & Eve bottom.

The rally from $35 pushed silver toward the $39.50 resistance before entering a corrective phase. The price is expected to find strong support near the $37–$36 range, potentially setting the stage for a continuation toward the $40–$42 target zone.

Technical Outlook – XAG/USD:

• Support Zone: $36.00–$37.00
• Key Resistance: $39.50, followed by $40.95
• Trend: Bullish unless support below $35 fails

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US Dollar Index (DXY): Strength Holds But Faces Resistance

The US Dollar Index has broken above its 50-day SMA, rebounding toward the 99–100.50 resistance area. This strength continues to weigh on gold prices. While the Dollar remains bullish short-term, traders are watching key resistance at 100.50 and support near 96.00.

Key Levels to Watch – DXY:

• Resistance: 99.40, then 100.50 and 102.00
• Support: 96.00; breakdown could expose 90.00

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Looking Ahead: Fed and Economic Data to Drive Direction

Markets now shift focus to a heavy US data docket:

• Wednesday: US GDP report
• Thursday: Core PCE and Employment Cost Index
• Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

The upcoming FOMC decision will be pivotal. If the Fed hints at future rate cuts, both gold and silver could regain bullish momentum despite recent weakness.

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