EUR/USD Slips as Investors Await Key US PCE Inflation Data

The EUR/USD pair is trading with mild weakness on Friday, slipping toward the 1.1335 area after a strong rebound from recent lows near 1.1200. Despite Thursday’s recovery, euro bulls appear cautious ahead of a pivotal inflation report out of the United States.

🔹 Current Price: 1.1339
🔹 24-Hour Change: -0.15%

Market Overview: Dollar Rebounds Amid Trade Uncertainty

After Wednesday’s rally, the euro struggled to hold gains as the US Dollar staged a modest rebound during the Asian session. Risk sentiment took a hit following a federal appeals court decision that reinstated Trump-era tariffs—reigniting fears of a global trade disruption. As a result, the greenback attracted safe-haven bids, pressuring EUR/USD.

However, the upside momentum for the dollar remains limited, as investors weigh looming US fiscal risks and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates later in 2025. Meanwhile, the euro found some support after the US administration delayed new tariffs on EU goods—offering short-term relief for the common currency.

Key Economic Releases to Watch

Markets are now eyeing today’s release of the US Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A softer-than-expected reading could revive dovish bets, weakening the dollar and potentially lifting EUR/USD into the weekend.

Upcoming Events (GMT):

• 06:00 – EU Retail Sales MoM: -1.1% (prev 0.9%)
• 07:00 – EU CPI YoY: Expected at 2.2%
• 12:30 – US Core PCE Price Index: Forecast 2.5% YoY

Next week, the spotlight will shift to the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting on Thursday, which could offer new clues about the eurozone rate outlook.

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🔍 EUR/USD Technical Outlook

The pair remains within a mildly bullish trend, supported above the 1.1300 mark. However, momentum indicators suggest consolidation may be ahead.

Support Levels:

• 1.1300 – Minor psychological level
• 1.1250 – Near-term support zone

Resistance Levels:

• 1.1380 – Weekly high
• 1.1450 – Key resistance if PCE data disappoints

If EUR/USD holds above 1.1300 and US inflation data eases, the pair could target a retest of 1.1400+ levels. On the flip side, a hotter inflation print may send the pair back toward 1.1250.

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Outlook: EUR/USD remains range-bound but sensitive to incoming US inflation data and shifting rate expectations. Traders should stay alert for volatility heading into the weekend.

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