EUR/USD Forecast: Holds Steady Near 1.1650 as Traders Await US Data

The EUR/USD pair is trading within a narrow range around 1.1650 during Thursday’s session, with the Euro facing mixed pressure after the Bank of England’s policy announcement triggered a sharp drop in EUR/GBP. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains under pressure as investors brace for upcoming economic data from the US.

🔍 Technical Outlook – EUR/USD Consolidates

Currently trading at 1.1648, EUR/USD shows signs of a short-term correction after failing to push higher. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below 70, suggesting the pair is pulling back from overbought levels.

Key support is found at the 1.1650–1.1660 zone, where the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) converges with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent bullish trend. A failure to hold above this level could trigger further downside toward:

• 1.1620 – 100-period SMA
• 1.1540–1.1550 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 50-period SMA
• 1.1500 – A critical psychological support level

On the upside, resistance is located at:

• 1.1700 – Static and round number resistance
• 1.1760 – Previous swing high
• 1.1800 – A key round level that may cap further gains

🧾 Fundamental Drivers – Focus on US Jobless Claims and Trade Tensions

Markets are closely watching US Initial Jobless Claims, set to be released later today. Expectations point to a slight increase to 221,000 from 218,000. A stronger-than-expected reading below 210,000 could support the US Dollar, while a miss above 230,000 might weaken it and boost EUR/USD.

Meanwhile, rising geopolitical tensions continue to impact sentiment. US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs—25% on Indian goods due to Russian oil imports, with potential additional tariffs on China for similar reasons. The administration also plans a massive 100% tariff on imported semiconductors not made in the US, sparking concerns over global trade disruptions.

Such headlines weigh on the USD, with fears of further escalation in US-China trade relations limiting greenback demand.

📊 Upcoming Eurozone Data to Watch

Several mid-tier Eurozone indicators are also on the radar, including:

• EU Industrial Production (YoY) – Expected at -2%
• Harmonized CPI (YoY) – Forecast at 3.6%
• Regular CPI (YoY) – Seen at 2.8%
• Global Trade Balance – Projected at -€3.217B

Unless US data or central bank commentary sparks a shift in sentiment, EUR/USD is likely to remain within its current range, with the 1.1650 level acting as a pivotal technical point in the short term.

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