EUR/USD Forecast: Pair Holds Firm Above 1.1100 Ahead of US NFP and Powell’s Speech

Key Highlights:

• EUR/USD trades near 1.1100 as US Dollar weakens amid global recession fears.
• Market awaits US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data and Fed Chair Powell’s speech for direction.
• Technical indicators show overbought conditions, but bullish momentum remains strong.

EUR/USD Market Update – April 4, 2025

The EUR/USD pair is holding steady near 1.1100 during early Friday trading in Europe, maintaining strength following a multi-day rally. The Euro continues to outperform as broad-based US Dollar weakness persists amid recession concerns and global trade war escalation, following President Trump’s aggressive tariff announcements.

Investors are now shifting focus toward two major catalysts: the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and a scheduled speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, both of which could shape near-term EUR/USD direction.

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🔍 EUR/USD Technical Analysis

• Resistance Levels:
  • 1.1145 – 2025 high (April 3)
  • 1.1200 – Psychological round level
  • 1.1213 – 2024 high (September 25)
• Support Levels:
  • 1.1000 – Former resistance, now immediate support
  • 1.0950 – Static support
  • 1.0732 – March 27 low and 200-day SMA
  • 1.0594 – 55-day SMA

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart has crossed 70, suggesting overbought conditions, while the ADX remains above 28, signaling that the current uptrend retains strength.

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🌍 Global Factors Supporting EUR/USD Strength

EUR/USD’s push above 1.1100—its highest level since October 2024—is mainly driven by broad USD weakness, as markets digest President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff policy. The new plan includes a baseline 10% tariff on all imports and additional country-specific reciprocal tariffs (e.g., 34% on China, 20% on the EU, 10% on the UK, 24% on Japan). These measures take effect between April 5 and April 9, fueling recession fears and weakening the Greenback.

Meanwhile, easing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, especially the US-brokered ceasefire in Ukraine, offer some relief to global sentiment.

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🏦 Central Bank Policy Outlook

• Federal Reserve (Fed):
  Chair Powell has maintained a data-dependent stance, hinting at up to 50 bps of rate cuts this year if economic conditions deteriorate further. Persistent inflation and slowing growth remain key challenges.
• European Central Bank (ECB):
  The ECB recently cut its key rate by 25 bps, with President Christine Lagarde warning that US-EU trade tensions could cut 0.5% off Eurozone GDP. The ECB may consider further easing if uncertainty persists.

Market odds suggest an 80% probability of a Fed rate cut this month, supporting the bullish case for EUR/USD.

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📅 What to Watch Next

• Friday, April 4:
  • US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) – A weaker-than-expected print could reinforce Fed rate cut bets and further pressure the USD.
  • Jerome Powell Speech – Investors will scrutinize Powell’s tone on inflation, growth, and tariffs.

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📈 EUR/USD Outlook: Bullish Bias Holds, But Watch for Volatility

While the EUR/USD uptrend remains technically supported, overbought RSI conditions suggest some caution. A clear break above 1.1145 could pave the way toward 1.1200 and beyond, while a drop below 1.1000 may trigger a pullback toward 1.0950 or 1.0900.

Conclusion:
With rising Fed rate cut expectations, geopolitical concerns, and tariff-driven uncertainty, the Euro remains favored against the Dollar. However, today’s NFP report and Powell’s comments will be crucial for determining whether EUR/USD continues to climb or faces a near-term correction.

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