Dollar Dips, Yen Rebounds, and Aussie & Kiwi Consolidate Amid Fed Shift and Jobs Data Miss

Major forex pairs — AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/JPY — are locked in key technical formations as markets react to dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and soft economic data from Australia. With risk sentiment fragile and breakout zones tightening, traders are bracing for high volatility in the sessions ahead.

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🇺🇸 USD/JPY Holds Ground After Fed Dovish Pause

The US Dollar weakened against the Japanese Yen after the Federal Reserve held rates unchanged and signaled two rate cuts before the end of 2025, aligning with investor expectations but tilting market sentiment toward caution.

Highlights:

• USD/JPY dipped to 144.50, but rebounded above 145 as yields stabilized
• The 2-year Treasury yield fell nearly 5 basis points to 3.9%
• The Fed removed prior inflation warnings, describing the labor market as “solid” with a projected 4.5% unemployment rate by year-end
• The dot plot revealed that seven Fed members expect two cuts, four anticipate just one

With the Fed’s more dovish tone and geopolitical uncertainty swirling, USD/JPY is likely to remain range-bound until a confirmed breakout.

📈 Resistance: 148.30
📉 Support: 142.00
Break above 148.30 = bullish continuation
Break below 142.00 = bearish trend resumes

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🇦🇺 AUD/USD Stays Soft After Disappointing Jobs Data

The Australian Dollar is struggling to find direction after a weaker-than-expected May employment report. While AUD/USD trades near 0.6480, upside remains limited due to both domestic and global headwinds.

Key data:

• Employment change: -2,500 vs expected +25,000
• Part-time jobs: -41,200
• Unemployment rate: 4.1%, unchanged but job seeker numbers mixed

While the jobless rate stayed stable, the drop in new employment reflects fragile momentum in Australia’s labor market. Combined with Middle East conflict and the Fed’s cautious outlook, AUD demand may remain capped.

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📊 AUD/USD Technical Analysis – Broadening Wedge

• Price Range: 0.6550 – 0.6460
• RSI is trending lower from mid-range
• Key breakout points:
  🔺 Above 0.6600 = potential bullish breakout
  🔻 Below 0.6450 = bearish confirmation

As long as price remains within this ascending broadening wedge, traders should watch for breakouts at the edges of the range.

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🇳🇿 NZD/USD Sees Bullish Structure, But Faces Near-Term Pullback

NZD/USD remains technically supported by a rounding bottom formation near 0.5850, despite recent pressure from short-term US Dollar strength. The pair has pulled back from 0.6080, but medium-term structure remains constructive.

📉 Pullbacks are viewed as buying opportunities, with bullish momentum likely to resume once USD strength fades.

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📊 NZD/USD Technical Levels:

• Support: 0.5850
• Resistance: 0.6080
• Pattern: Rounding bottom on 4-hour chart, signaling longer-term strength
• Near-term trend: Consolidation inside bullish structure

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🧠 Key Takeaways for DailyForex.pk Traders

🔹 USD/JPY consolidates post-Fed, eyes breakout at 148.30
🔹 AUD/USD under pressure from weak jobs data and global risk aversion
🔹 NZD/USD forms bullish pattern, with short-term pullbacks likely to be temporary
🔹 Fed’s tone and geopolitical risks remain the top drivers for volatility across USD pairs

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