Crude Oil and Natural Gas Outlook: Market Stalls as Downside Pressure Builds

Highlights:

• WTI Crude struggles to hold above $65, stuck in tight range after sharp pullback.
• Brent Crude holds below $70, pressured by OPEC+ production outlook and weak sentiment.
• Natural Gas stabilizes near $3.30, but risks breaking lower if support fails.

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Crude oil and natural gas prices remain under pressure as market consolidation persists and traders weigh geopolitical calm against rising supply expectations.

Oil Market Awaits Fresh Drivers After Sharp Retreat

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is trading below $65 per barrel, still reeling from its sharp drop after rejecting resistance near $77. Brent crude also remains subdued under $70, despite ongoing concerns around refinery issues in the UK. Reports that Prax Group—operator of Lindsey Oil Refinery—filed for insolvency have stirred supply concerns in Europe, but broader market reaction has been muted.

Traders are instead focused on global output. OPEC+ is reportedly set to approve another production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in August, adding to the year’s total output hike of 1.8 million barrels. Additionally, geopolitical tensions have cooled following the Iran-Israel ceasefire, stripping away some of the risk premium in oil markets and reinforcing the current consolidation.

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WTI Crude Oil (CL) – Technical Analysis

Daily Chart:
WTI prices have failed to sustain above $77 and now face ongoing pressure below $66. The 50-day SMA near $64 is critical support—if broken, prices may accelerate toward lower levels. With the 200-day SMA overhead, the broader trend remains bearish.

4-Hour Chart:
The formation of a double top between $75 and $77 triggered a breakdown below $67. Prices are now trapped in a sideways range of $64 to $67. A confirmed move below $64 could open the door to deeper losses.

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Brent Crude Oil (BCO) – Technical Analysis

Daily Chart:
Brent has once again failed at the $80 ceiling, a historically strong resistance zone reinforced by trendline pressure. After losing ground, it fell below its 200-day SMA and is now hovering near $67 support. A breakdown here could lead to a sharper correction.

4-Hour Chart:
Prices are stabilizing within the lower band of the recent drop. Brent is stuck in a range, awaiting direction. A move outside this zone—either above $72 or below $67—will likely set the next trend.

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Natural Gas (NG) – Technical Analysis

Daily Chart:
Natural gas is consolidating between $3.00 and $4.00, with the 200-day SMA near $3.30 acting as critical support. A drop below this level would signal fading bullish momentum and increase the risk of a retest of the $2.70 region.

4-Hour Chart:
NG has been in sideways movement for much of the last quarter. Price action remains indecisive between $3.00 and $4.70. A confirmed breakout from this range could finally trigger the next trend move.

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Outlook Summary:
Crude oil and natural gas remain trapped in ranges as traders await clearer catalysts. OPEC+ policy moves, global demand signals, and U.S. economic data could offer direction in the coming days. Until then, downside risks remain elevated while energy markets consolidate.

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