Bitcoin Faces Sixth Rejection at $95K While Altcoins Show Signs of Breakout Momentum

Bitcoin continues to face strong resistance at the $95,000 level, marking its sixth failed breakout attempt in as many days. Despite briefly closing at $95,630—its highest daily close to date—BTC remains trapped under the key resistance zone, raising the odds of a potential pullback.

Bitcoin Technical Overview: Signs of Weakening Momentum

While Bitcoin (BTC) stays above the daily TBO Cloud for over a week, both RSI and Volume metrics suggest exhaustion. The daily RSI remains overbought but is trending lower, forming consistent lower highs and lower lows. Daily trading volume has stayed below its 30-day moving average since April 25, highlighting a lack of conviction from bulls.

Fibonacci retracement levels to monitor include:

• $90,361 – 0.5 level
• $86,339 – 0.382 level
• $82,000 – major confluence zone, including the 2024 extension and 2025 support range

On the 4-hour chart, bearish signals are reappearing with TBT Bearish Divergence Clusters similar to those observed before BTC’s top at $109K in January.

Bitcoin Dominance and Stablecoin Flows Indicate Market Uncertainty

Stablecoin dominance remains rangebound within the TBO Cloud, signaling indecision. While no TBO Close Short has printed, the current setup mirrors late March—preceding a brief fear spike. BTC Dominance (BTC.D) is still elevated, but the daily RSI is weakening.

Meanwhile, OTHERS.D—the market cap share of altcoins excluding BTC and ETH—holds strong above support with rising RSI. Historical signals from June 2023 are beginning to repeat, reinforcing the case for an altcoin rotation.

Altcoins Flash Bullish Breakout Signals

While Bitcoin consolidates, altcoins are beginning to break free:

• TOTAL3 (total crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH) printed its first daily TBO Open Long since Tuesday
• OTHERS market cap followed with a confirmed TBO Open Long, signaling strengthening sentiment for mid-cap and lower-cap altcoins
• BVOL7D, the BTC volatility indicator, is dropping back to the Bounce Zone, a trend last seen before October 2024’s major rally

Ethereum (ETH) remains sideways, while XRP and BNB are stuck in tight ranges. However, SOL, ADA, LINK, and NEAR are bouncing off support, showing signs of potential breakouts. LINK is on track to confirm a TBO Open Long in today’s candle.

Microcaps Gaining Momentum

Lower-cap assets such as CRV, AKT, KAS, SEI, KAIA, and ACT are generating strong bullish signals:

• OBV and Volume are climbing
• Multiple TBO Open Longs are printing across the board
• ACT is setting up for its first TBT Bullish Divergence on the daily timeframe

Macro Outlook and Gold Correlation

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is rebounding, historically a headwind for Bitcoin. However, S&P Futures and broader equities remain firm, suggesting that risk appetite is still alive. Meanwhile, gold has cooled from its $3,500 highs, retracing to its TBO Fast Line support. The PAXG/BTC ratio is showing a bearish setup, which historically precedes BTC outperformance over gold.

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📌 Final Thoughts

Bitcoin’s failure to break $95K is creating uncertainty, with signs pointing to a potential retracement toward the $82,000 zone. However, altcoins are gaining strength across multiple charts with clear bullish breakout setups. If BTC clears $95K in the coming days, it could ignite a market-wide rally with altcoins leading the charge.

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