Australian Dollar Rises on Strong Chinese Export Surge and Tariff Relief Optimism

The Australian Dollar (AUD) kicked off the week on a positive note, with AUD/USD holding firm near the 0.6300 level in early Asian trading on Monday. The pair found support from an improved global risk mood, driven by strong Chinese trade figures for March and fresh relief from U.S. tariff tensions.

Traders now await further developments on trade talks and U.S. inflation data later this week for the next directional push.

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🔍 AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Current Price: 0.6294
Trend Bias: Cautiously Bullish

AUD/USD has rebounded above its nine-day EMA (currently at 0.6167), hinting at a short-term bullish bias. However, the 14-day RSI remains below the 50 neutral line, suggesting buyers are not yet fully in control.

• Immediate Support: 0.6167 (9-day EMA), followed by 0.5914 (March 2020 low)
• Key Resistance: 0.6260 (50-day EMA), then 0.6408 (4-month high)

A daily close above the 0.6260 level could pave the way for a test of the psychological resistance at 0.6400, while a drop below 0.6160 would invalidate the short-term bullish setup.

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🌐 Fundamental Drivers: Trade Optimism Lifts AUD

The Australian Dollar’s rally was boosted by robust Chinese exports data and a notable shift in tariff rhetoric from Washington.

• Chinese exports surprised to the upside, easing investor concerns over demand in Australia’s largest trading partner.
• Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on newly imposed tariffs for most trade partners, excluding China. This gesture is seen as a step toward broader trade negotiations and easing global tensions.

Meanwhile, China responded to prior U.S. tariff escalations by raising duties on 84% of U.S. imports, while simultaneously introducing export restrictions and blacklisting key U.S. defense companies.

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🇦🇺 Domestic Outlook: RBA Rate Cuts in Focus

In Australia, subdued sentiment among consumers and businesses is pushing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) toward a more dovish stance. Markets are now pricing in up to 100 bps of rate cuts in 2025, beginning as early as May.

This week, traders will closely monitor U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and University of Michigan consumer sentiment data for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next move.

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📉 Inflation Snapshot: U.S. vs China

• U.S. March CPI:
  • Headline: 2.4% YoY (vs. 2.8% in Feb)
  • Core: 2.8% YoY (vs. 3.1% in Feb)
• China March CPI:
  • Headline: -0.1% YoY
  • PPI: -2.5% YoY

These figures highlight the diverging inflation paths between the world’s two largest economies, further complicating global monetary policy decisions.

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🔚 Bottom Line

AUD/USD remains well-supported above 0.6300 as markets digest encouraging signs from trade policy developments and Chinese data. However, rising U.S.-China tensions, weaker domestic sentiment, and rate cut expectations from the RBA could temper gains in the medium term.

Key Levels to Watch This Week:

• Upside: 0.6408 and 0.6500
• Downside: 0.6160 and 0.5900

Stay tuned for tariff headlines and upcoming inflation releases — they could decide the next breakout direction for AUD/USD.