AUD/USD Holds Above 0.6400 Despite Renewed US Dollar Strength – Will the Aussie Extend Its Rally?

The AUD/USD pair is showing resilience early Tuesday, clinging to gains above the 0.6400 level even as the US Dollar regains traction on the back of renewed trade optimism and risk-sensitive flows. Traders remain cautiously optimistic about upcoming US trade announcements, which is helping maintain a mildly bullish sentiment across markets.

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🔍 Technical Overview – AUD/USD Near YTD Highs

• Current Price: 0.6414
• Trend: Bullish with limited momentum
• Key Resistance: 0.6435, 0.6470, 0.6505
• Key Support: 0.6390, 0.6360, 0.6325

On the daily chart, AUD/USD stays elevated near the 0.6430 resistance region, with technical indicators trending upward—though slightly overbought. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is on the verge of crossing above the 100 SMA, reinforcing the potential for continued upside. The long-term 200 SMA looms as dynamic resistance at 0.6460.

On the 4-hour chart, near-term support is established around the flat 20 SMA at 0.6390. Indicators show a neutral stance but lean bullish, especially if the pair breaks decisively above the 0.6435 resistance barrier.

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🌐 Fundamental Drivers – Mixed Sentiment on US-China Trade

AUD/USD’s three-day winning streak was momentarily capped by a mild USD rebound early in the US session. Optimism about potential trade deals between Washington and key partners including China helped lift the Greenback. However, sentiment quickly faded after China denied reports that President Xi Jinping had engaged with US President Donald Trump, causing Wall Street to turn red and the USD to weaken again.

Meanwhile, Australia has yet to release any impactful macroeconomic data this week. Traders are awaiting Wednesday’s release of Q1 Consumer Price Index (CPI) and RBA Trimmed Mean CPI, which could shape the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook moving forward.

On the US side, critical economic data is due, including the ADP Employment Change report and the first estimate of Q1 GDP, both of which could significantly sway USD flows and impact AUD/USD direction.

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📊 Outlook for AUD/USD – Cautiously Bullish

As long as AUD/USD stays above 0.6400 and manages to clear the 0.6435 resistance level, the bullish trend remains in play. Traders should watch for a breakout above 0.6470 to signal renewed momentum toward 0.6500+. However, failure to hold 0.6390 could trigger a pullback toward 0.6360 or lower.

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