AUD/USD Slips Below 0.6450 as RBA Minutes and Weak China PMI Shake Market Confidence

The Australian Dollar dipped early Tuesday, facing renewed pressure as traders react to dovish RBA minutes and disappointing Chinese manufacturing data.

AUD/USD fell toward the 0.6450 level in the Asian session, dragged down by a mix of fundamental headwinds. The release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes showed a cautious outlook, while China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48.3 in May — well below the 50.6 forecast — indicating contraction in the sector. A modest rebound in the US Dollar also weighed on the pair.

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📉 AUD/USD Technical Outlook

At the time of writing, AUD/USD trades near 0.6464, attempting to hold above its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6444. This area serves as a critical pivot for the pair’s next directional move.

• Upside Targets:
  • Immediate resistance lies at the 2025 high of 0.6537 (May 26)
  • Followed by 0.6687 (November 2024 peak)
  • Long-term resistance remains at 0.6942 (September 2024 high)
• Downside Support:
  • First support at 0.6356 (May 12 low)
  • Then the 55-day SMA at 0.6354 and 100-day SMA at 0.6323
  • Deeper retracement may retest April 2025 low of 0.5913
  • Pandemic-era floor at 0.5506 (March 2020)

Indicators:

• RSI is approaching 58, reflecting mild bullish momentum
• ADX remains near 21, signaling a weak yet steady trend

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🏦 Fundamental Drivers

AUD/USD began the week on a positive note, nearly testing the 0.6500 barrier. However, renewed US-China trade tensions and soft Chinese macro data soured sentiment. The US Dollar Index (DXY) found temporary footing below 99.00, following investor concerns over inconsistent US trade policy and escalating geopolitical risks.

Meanwhile, central bank dynamics are playing a major role:

• Federal Reserve:
  • Kept rates steady in May
  • Chair Powell emphasized a data-dependent approach
  • April’s soft inflation print supports expectations for a possible rate cut by September
• Reserve Bank of Australia:
  • Cut rates by 25 bps to 3.85% on May 20
  • Forecasts a gradual path to 3.2% by 2027
  • Lowered GDP growth to 2.1% for 2025 and inflation to 2.6%
  • April’s Monthly CPI stayed flat at 2.4%

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🌏 China’s Influence & Growing Bearish Bets

Australia’s economic outlook remains tightly linked to China’s performance. Despite better-than-expected industrial production, Q1 data showed weak retail sales and sluggish fixed asset investment. The People’s Bank of China recently cut both the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates, but housing market instability and inconsistent US trade policies continue to cloud the regional outlook.

Bearish sentiment around AUD has also grown. As of May 27, CFTC data revealed net short positions rose to 61.2K contracts, marking the most bearish stance since early April.

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📅 Key Events to Watch This Week:

• June 3: RBA Minutes
• June 4: Ai Group Manufacturing Survey, Final S&P Global Services PMI, Q1 GDP
• June 5: Australia’s Trade Balance
• June 6: Final Building Permits & Private House Approvals

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Conclusion:
AUD/USD remains at a technical crossroads, with macroeconomic pressures from both domestic and international sources weighing on sentiment. While central bank divergence and China’s slowdown create headwinds, any break above 0.6500 could trigger bullish momentum. Until then, traders should watch key support levels closely.

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