AUD/USD Hits 2-Week High Near 0.6350 as RBA Minutes Signal Possible Hawkish Shift

The Australian Dollar (AUD) surged for the fifth consecutive session on Tuesday, with the AUD/USD pair climbing to a near two-week high around 0.6350. The bullish momentum followed the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes, which hinted at the possibility of revisiting monetary policy in response to emerging economic risks.

📈 Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Eyes Key Resistance Levels

From a technical perspective, AUD/USD maintains a cautiously bullish tone, supported by a break above the 0.6300 level. However, the pair still trades below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6483, which remains a key barrier for sustained upside.

• Immediate Resistance: 2025 high at 0.6408, followed by 0.6483 (200-day SMA)
• Support Levels: 0.6167 (9-day EMA), 0.5913 (2025 low from April 8), and 0.5506 (2020 low)
• RSI Indicator: Hovers near 55, indicating moderate bullish momentum
• ADX: Reading near 15 suggests that trend strength remains fragile

🌐 Fundamental Outlook: Trade War Fears & Central Bank Divergence

RBA Minutes Boost Aussie Sentiment

The RBA minutes revealed a cautious but potentially hawkish stance, with members considering that the May policy meeting could be a turning point depending on inflation trends. The central bank kept the Official Cash Rate at 4.10%, but ongoing cost pressures and rising commodity prices may delay any near-term rate cuts.

Market expectations for a 25 bps rate cut at the next meeting have now fallen to 70% from 80% last week, adding support to the AUD.

Trump’s Tariffs & Global Market Reactions

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s tariff escalation—now up to 145% on certain Chinese goods—has reignited trade war fears, spurring volatility across currency markets. With China retaliating and global growth at risk, the AUD, being a China-sensitive currency, remains in the spotlight.

Diverging Central Bank Policies

While the RBA debates a cautious policy shift, the US Federal Reserve is under pressure to address economic slowdown risks amid weakening inflation. March’s US CPI eased to 2.4% YoY, down from 2.8%, prompting speculation about multiple rate cuts in 2025.

The Fed’s dovish tilt, alongside trade uncertainty, continues to weigh on the US Dollar Index (DXY), which remains around 100.20, adding further lift to the AUD/USD pair.

🔎 Market Sentiment & Positioning

Speculative net longs in AUD have declined to a 4-week low, suggesting that traders had become cautious. However, the recent rebound is pushing new bullish flows into the pair, with open interest climbing to a multi-week high.

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📌 Outlook for AUD/USD

If AUD/USD breaks above the 0.6408 resistance, a further rally toward the 200-day SMA at 0.6483 becomes increasingly likely. However, a failure to sustain above 0.6350 could prompt consolidation or a pullback toward the 0.6160–0.6100 range.

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