The Australian Dollar (AUD) surged for the fifth consecutive session on Tuesday, with the AUD/USD pair climbing to a near two-week high around 0.6350. The bullish momentum followed the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes, which hinted at the possibility of revisiting monetary policy in response to emerging economic risks.
From a technical perspective, AUD/USD maintains a cautiously bullish tone, supported by a break above the 0.6300 level. However, the pair still trades below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6483, which remains a key barrier for sustained upside.
The RBA minutes revealed a cautious but potentially hawkish stance, with members considering that the May policy meeting could be a turning point depending on inflation trends. The central bank kept the Official Cash Rate at 4.10%, but ongoing cost pressures and rising commodity prices may delay any near-term rate cuts.
Market expectations for a 25 bps rate cut at the next meeting have now fallen to 70% from 80% last week, adding support to the AUD.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trumpâs tariff escalationânow up to 145% on certain Chinese goodsâhas reignited trade war fears, spurring volatility across currency markets. With China retaliating and global growth at risk, the AUD, being a China-sensitive currency, remains in the spotlight.
While the RBA debates a cautious policy shift, the US Federal Reserve is under pressure to address economic slowdown risks amid weakening inflation. Marchâs US CPI eased to 2.4% YoY, down from 2.8%, prompting speculation about multiple rate cuts in 2025.
The Fedâs dovish tilt, alongside trade uncertainty, continues to weigh on the US Dollar Index (DXY), which remains around 100.20, adding further lift to the AUD/USD pair.
Speculative net longs in AUD have declined to a 4-week low, suggesting that traders had become cautious. However, the recent rebound is pushing new bullish flows into the pair, with open interest climbing to a multi-week high.
đ Outlook for AUD/USD
If AUD/USD breaks above the 0.6408 resistance, a further rally toward the 200-day SMA at 0.6483 becomes increasingly likely. However, a failure to sustain above 0.6350 could prompt consolidation or a pullback toward the 0.6160â0.6100 range.
Stay updated with the latest forex news, AUD/USD technical levels, and global market analysis only on DailyForex.pk â Pakistanâs trusted source for real-time currency insights and trading updates.
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