AUD and Kiwi Rally on USD Weakness, Yen Holds Key Support as Geopolitical Risks Loom

The Australian Dollar (AUD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD) posted gains against the weakening US Dollar, while the Japanese Yen (JPY) held steady with USD/JPY consolidating above 142 amid global uncertainty and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve.

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AUD/USD: Gains Capped by Domestic Weakness Despite Chinese Support

The Australian Dollar struggled for direction on Tuesday, retreating slightly despite maintaining an overall bullish posture. The pullback in AUD/USD followed a weaker-than-expected print in Australia’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, which dropped to 50.6 in June from 51.0 in May — its lowest level since February. Declining new orders and subdued demand reflected soft domestic sentiment.

China, however, offered a glimmer of optimism. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI jumped to 50.4 in June from May’s 48.3, hinting at recovery in China’s industrial activity. As Australia’s largest trading partner, stronger Chinese demand typically underpins the Aussie.

Still, the Australian Dollar’s upside was limited as the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered below 97, pressured by expectations of Fed rate cuts and stable PCE inflation data. May’s annual PCE rose 2.3% while the core figure printed at 2.7%, both in line with forecasts — offering no relief to the USD.

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NZD/USD: Bullish Momentum Builds Toward Breakout

The New Zealand Dollar mirrored the Aussie’s strength, inching higher against the greenback. NZD/USD is now approaching the resistance zone near 0.6090 after multiple bullish retests of the 0.5850 level, supported by rounding bottom patterns on lower timeframes.

If the pair can clear the 0.6090 ceiling, it may spark further upside. A subdued US Dollar and improving global risk appetite continue to favor the Kiwi.

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USD/JPY: Consolidates Above 142 as Fed Uncertainty Meets Geopolitical Risk

The USD/JPY pair remains range-bound above 142. Recent attempts to break higher have stalled below 148.30, with traders cautious due to conflicting signals from Fed officials and elevated geopolitical tensions.

While Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari maintained expectations for two rate cuts this year, Chair Jerome Powell sounded a note of caution. Powell warned that rising tariffs could entrench inflationary pressures, complicating the Fed’s path forward.

In the background, geopolitical headlines also impacted sentiment. A U.S. intelligence report suggested Iran’s nuclear program remains resilient despite recent strikes, while the lack of progress in nuclear talks is keeping markets on edge. Uncertainty around the Fed’s leadership — as President Trump hints at replacing Powell — further adds to investor caution.

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Technical Outlook

✅ AUD/USD: Trading within an ascending broadening wedge pattern on the 4H chart. Key resistance lies at 0.6650, while support holds at 0.6400. A breakout above 0.6650 would open the door for a fresh rally.

✅ NZD/USD: Approaches resistance at 0.6090. A clean break above this level could confirm bullish continuation, especially if USD weakness persists.

✅ USD/JPY: The descending broadening wedge pattern on the 4H chart signals mounting downside risk. A sustained drop below 142 could trigger further bearish momentum.

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Bottom Line:
AUD and NZD remain supported by USD softness and China’s economic stabilization, while the Yen holds firm amid uncertainty. All eyes are now on upcoming US data releases and central bank commentary that could determine the next directional moves across these major pairs.

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