AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/JPY Forecast: Inflation Data, Trade Woes & Technical Signals

Key Highlights:
✅ Weak U.S. inflation fuels Fed rate cut hopes
✅ Aussie Dollar struggles on poor trade data and China slowdown
✅ NZD/USD shows bullish chart signals
✅ USD/JPY under pressure below 145 resistance

🇦🇺 AUD/USD Outlook: Trade Worries & China Data Weigh on Aussie

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) remains under pressure for the second straight day, despite a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation reading. May’s U.S. CPI came in at 2.4% YoY vs. the expected 2.5%, while core CPI dipped to 2.8%. These figures boosted market confidence in a possible Fed rate cut by September.

However, the Aussie failed to benefit. The drag came from weak Australian trade figures — April’s trade surplus narrowed to 5.41B AUD, below the 6.1B AUD estimate. Exports fell while imports rose, pointing to waning demand from China.

China’s own trade report further dampened sentiment. Although its surplus widened to $103.22B, exports slowed to 4.8% growth while imports shrank 3.4% — signaling fragile demand from Australia’s top trading partner.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also hurt risk appetite. The U.S. has warned citizens to leave the region amid rising tensions, adding pressure on risk-linked currencies like the Aussie.

🇯🇵 USD/JPY Forecast: Inflation Miss & Risk Aversion Drive Losses

The USD/JPY pair extended losses after soft U.S. inflation reinforced dovish Fed expectations. The U.S. Dollar Index fell to 98.30, and the pair retreated from the 145.00 resistance zone.

If bearish momentum persists, a break below 142.00 could open the door toward 140.00. The pair is also being impacted by trade uncertainty — even though President Trump claimed the U.S.-China trade deal is “done,” unresolved tariff concerns continue to weigh on sentiment. A federal court ruling that allows current tariffs to remain in place further adds to market volatility.

🇳🇿 NZD/USD Forecast: Bullish Price Action Holds Firm

NZD/USD is consolidating near 0.6020, maintaining strength despite broad market uncertainty. The pair has shown bullish momentum since rebounding from the 0.5500 support. A cup-like formation near the 0.5850 zone suggests growing upside potential. Current corrections may offer dip-buying opportunities.

📊 Technical Chart Analysis

📈 AUD/USD – Ascending Broadening Wedge Forming

Support: 0.6430
Resistance: 0.6600
Outlook remains bullish as long as price stays above 0.6430.

📈 NZD/USD – Bullish Continuation Setup

Bullish structure holds above 0.6020
Cup pattern from 0.5850 supports upward momentum.

📉 USD/JPY – Descending Broadening Wedge

Support: 142.00
Break Below 142: May trigger a decline toward 140.00
Bearish outlook unless price reclaims levels above 145.00

🔍 What to Watch Next

🟡 Fed Rate Cut Expectations
🟡 China Trade Developments
🟡 Middle East Geopolitical Tensions
🟡 U.S.-Japan Yield Spreads
🟡 Technical Breakouts at Key Support/Resistance Levels

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